Bank of America Merrill Lynch vient de publier son analyse sur l’économie européenne : BCE, l’Angleterre, l’Italie et le Portugal sont mis à l’honneur. Une analyse en finesse des forces, et de quelques blocages, du Vieux Continent…
Nous avons retenu les 4 points suivants :
- BCE : un consensus prendra du temps
« […] Benoît Coeuré on Monday suggests that a consensus may yet take some time to form at the Council. We are not ruling out that ECB President Mario Draghi manages to "force" a decision next week, but the bar on an immediate response seems to be high. »
[…]
« Still, we think that the more the ECB waits, the more it will have to do to convince the market that it can deliver on its price stability objective. »
- Angleterre : Le marché du travail avance tant bien que mal
« The unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, the lowest since 2Q 2008, the first quarter of falling output during the crisis. In terms of the headline jobless rate, the damage of the financial crisis has now been undone. »
[…]
« The question for the BoE, of course, is how much world price pressures will continue to depress inflation next year. For now, they are likely to remain in wait-and-see mode, stuck in park and watching the data very closely. »
- Réforme constitutionnelle italienne : la fin d’un parfait bicaméralisme
« Italy’s perfect bicameralism is at the root of its complex legislative process, which translates into a slow and inefficient institutional system. In this regard, the reform completely overhauls the role of the Upper House. »
- Gouvernement portugais : une combinaison qui aura des impacts sur les futures réformes
« We believe that any new government, whatever the combination of parties
and unlikely to include the involvement of the radical left, would be market-friendly. »
[…]
« All in all, after lengthy negotiations, we expect to see a conservative minority government in place (even potentially a minority socialist one). That means that both the conservative coalition and the PS would be forced to negotiate strongly to get fiscal adjustment and further reforms. »
Si vous souhaitez lire l’analyse complète, cliquez ICI
SL/EB/FL